Large-Scale Climate Modeling and Intraseasonal Mode Analysis

Andrew Mercer, Mississippi State University

Usage Details

The project will be undertaken by the PI and an undergraduate student (entering into her junior year), Morgan Smith, as part of the Blue Waters Internship Program.  

Recent efforts in verifying global climate models have focused primarily on measuring individual variable magnitudes in lieu of spatial patterns.  However, recent work has revealed multiple geopotential height variability patterns embedded within the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.  These patterns are intraseasonal modes present within the larger hemispheric flow.  No study has attempted to simulate these patterns using a climate model and to specifically verify the model’s ability to recreate these patterns.  The goal of this project will be the verification of these patterns from output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model run in a climate-scale configuration for a 50 year simulation.  A rotated principal component analysis will be used to verify spatial orientation of these intraseasonal height modes as well as their temporal evolution.  Such a study is critical to map future orientations of these fields under the threat of climate change.