Interannual Prediction and Predictability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and the Role of Extratropical Processes

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most severe storm systems on the planet of earth, and skillful prediction of TC activity is of significant socio-economic value. Compared to seasonal TC prediction, interannual or multi-year TC prediction has been less studied, and its predictability is not well understood. Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has been regarded as the primary predictability source for interannual Atlantic TC activity in the past. However, our study suggests that the Atlantic subpolar gyre SST is a more importance predictability source than tropical SST. Here, we propose to explore the physical link between extratropical SST and Atlantic TC activity using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The objective of this study is to advance our understanding of the tropical-extratropical interaction and the role of extratropics in modulating the tropical climate variability and TC activity on the interannual time scale.