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Interannual Prediction and Predictability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and the Role of Extratropical Processes

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Zhuo Wang, Chuan-Chieh Chang

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most severe storm systems on the planet of earth, and
skillful prediction of TC activity is of significant socio-economic value. Compared to seasonal TC
prediction, interannual or multi-year TC prediction has been less studied, and its predictability is
not well understood. Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has been regarded as the primary
predictability source for interannual Atlantic TC activity in the past. However, our study suggests
that the Atlantic subpolar gyre SST is a more importance predictability source than tropical SST.
Here, we propose to explore the physical link between extratropical SST and Atlantic TC activity
using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The objective of this study is to advance our
understanding of the tropical-extratropical interaction and the role of extratropics in modulating
the tropical climate variability and TC activity on the interannual time scale.