Forecasting Volcanic Unrest and Eruption Potential Using Statistical Data Assimilation
Patricia Gregg, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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Patricia Gregg, Yan Zhan, Keon Park, Haley Cabaniss, John AlbrightA primary motivation for investigating volcanic systems is developing the ability to predict eruptions and mitigate disaster for vulnerable populations. Over the past 3 years, Gregg and her students and postdocs have been developing new approaches for forecasting the evolution of volcanic systems. A high-performance computing (HPC) workflow has been fully developed using COMSOL Multiphysics finite element software and implemented successfully.
COMSOL is highly scalable supporting, two mutual modes of parallel operation: shared-‐memory parallel operations and distributed-‐memory parallel operations. We propose to conduct three large system-‐scale numerical experiments to investigate eruption potential and triggering mechanisms utilizing the unique computational configuration of Blue Waters.
In additional to the scientific outcomes of this effort, the experiments will mark the largest distributed implementations of COMSOL Multiphysics. This achievement is of great practical importance for finite element applications and will provide critical benchmarking for future efforts in other fields, such as engineering, in addition to earth sciences.
