Improving Convectively-Induced Turbulence Forecast Parameters through Bulk Numerical Simulations for Aviation Safety

Katelyn Barber, Shodor Education Foundation, Inc.

Usage Details

Convectively-induced turbulence is an aviation hazard that is a forecasting challenge because operational weather models are too coarse to resolve turbulence. Indices are commonly used to aid pilots in avoiding turbulence. Over tropical oceans, turbulence prediction systems rely heavily upon nowcasting and indices not designed for tropical convection. In this study, a large number of numerical simulations of tropical oceanic and mid-latitude continental convection will be performed to produce statistically robust results. This study will address the current shortcomings in turbulence prediction systems and will determine the limitations of mid-latitude continental indices currently used for turbulence prediction over tropical oceanic regions.