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The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Ryan Sriver, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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We propose to use Blue Waters to investigate the response of global tropical cyclone activity to changing greenhouse gas forcing (e.g. atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) using a fully-coupled configuration of the high resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM). This project builds on the PIs' recent Blue Waters allocation analyzing tropical cyclones in high-resolution configurations of CESM under constant present-day climate conditions for different coupled and uncoupled configurations. Here we propose to expand these current simulations into a more comprehensive climate change experiment. The model simulations will be performed by co-PI Li, who will be fully supported for the duration of the project in part by a NCSA Faculty Fellowship awarded to PI Sriver. The new simulations will provide a critical next step in settling the longstanding debate about the role of the tropical cyclones in influencing Earth's climate and how these events may change in the future.