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Development of 3D Probabilistic Physics-based Seismic Hazard Maps via Petascale Simulations for Regional Risk Analysis

Paolo Gardoni, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Paolo Gardoni, Roberto Guidotti

Disastrous earthquakes occurred worldwide during last years revealed the extreme vulnerability of greatly populated areas to seismic hazards. The project adds a contribution toward a reliable seismic risk evaluation, aiming at the development of site-specific seismic scenarios through physics-based 3D models of seismic wave propagation. To be reliable, those models require a high computational burden, with a significant level of parallelization and high-performance computing resources. That is why a petascale resource of the leading-edge capability of Blue Waters is necessary to address this research. The proposal is for an Explanatory Allocation and the requested resources will be used to: i) evaluate and tune the code SPEED (SPectral Elements in Elastodynamics with Discontinuous Galerkin) for Blue Waters and ii) demonstrate its readiness for use in a proposal submission. The following step will be a proposal for General Allocation, when the requested resources will be used to develop 3D probabilistic physics-based hazards maps.